A second straight down week on Wall Street, with oil above $100 and tech in the crosshairs again, this time on the back of Alphabet and Tesla earnings. Bitcoin was the exception at +3% on the week. Here’s the data from the week that just closed and the agenda for the one ahead, which packs the FOMC and four mega-cap earnings reports into 48 hours.
What the ES, the NQ and bitcoin did
The ES (S&P 500 futures) tracked a cash index that closed Friday at 7,411.98 points, nearly flat on the session (+3.68 points) and down 0.6% on the week (-45.71 points), its second consecutive weekly loss. The backdrop was the escalation between the United States and Iran, which pushed Brent above $100 a barrel and revived inflation fears; crude eased on Friday for the first time all week, which let the broad market breathe. The Dow once again held up better (-0.4% on the week, closing at 51,947) because the damage stayed concentrated in tech.
The NQ (Nasdaq 100 futures) was the epicenter again. The Nasdaq Composite closed Friday at 24,975.82 (-0.6%) and lost 2.1% on the week; the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1% Friday and posted back-to-back weekly losses for the first time since late March. The big hit came Thursday, the worst session in a month: Alphabet and Tesla beat revenue estimates Wednesday after the close and still shed hundreds of billions in combined market value the next day, with Alphabet down more than 6% and Tesla more than 10%. The market has stopped rewarding revenue growth when it comes packaged with AI capex that keeps climbing without showing up in profits. Intel capped it off Friday: record revenue of $16.13 billion and still a 7.9% drop.
Bitcoin was one of the few things that went up: it closed the week around $65,000, up 3%, after spending the whole stretch inside a $64,000–$66,800 range. It bounced off $66,000 several times, and on Thursday spot ETFs logged $225 million in net outflows, snapping a weekly inflow streak of roughly $1 billion. The interesting detail: during Thursday’s tech rout, crypto barely flinched.
Next week’s agenda
The week of July 27–31 crams almost everything that can move the market into two days. The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday 28 and Wednesday 29, with the rate decision and press conference on Wednesday (dates on the official FOMC calendar).
- Wednesday 29: Fed decision in the afternoon and, after the close, earnings from Microsoft and Meta.
- Thursday 30: in the morning, the advance Q2 GDP estimate and June PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, on the same day. After the close, Apple and Amazon report (plus Coinbase and Strategy, which matter for crypto).
- Friday 31: the Employment Cost Index. The July jobs report doesn’t arrive until Friday, August 7 (all on the BLS release schedule). In crypto, the month-end options expiry also lands that day.
And in the background, the United States–Iran front keeps oil pinned near $100, able to move risk sentiment on any headline.
How to read this agenda with order flow
The useful question isn’t where the market is headed, but where volatility will show up and which levels to have marked when it does.
- The FOMC is the textbook event for trading with a protocol. The first whipsaw after the statement is usually messy, and the press conference half an hour later can reverse it entirely. If you plan to be at the screen, review the news trading with order flow guide first: wider stops, smaller size, and wait for the flow to confirm.
- Thursday belongs to the opening auction. GDP and PCE at 8:30, with Microsoft and Meta already digested from the night before and Apple and Amazon waiting at the close. On days like that, the first hour’s range is the most objective reference you have: how to use it is covered in initial balance.
- On the NQ, watch the post-earnings moves. Last Thursday’s Tesla and Alphabet action leaves a lesson: beating estimates doesn’t guarantee demand. Earnings whipsaws leave plenty of buyers stuck at the top of the spike, and those trapped traders are fuel for the move in the other direction. The Composite closed just under 25,000, a round number that will act as both magnet and excuse.
- On the ES, last week’s map is still live. The 7,400 level on cash held as the downside reference and the 7,600–7,640 zone remains the pending resistance overhead. With the FOMC in the middle, the game is watching who defends each level when price gets there, not guessing which one breaks first.
- In bitcoin, $66,000 is the ceiling to beat. Three failed attempts during the week and a well-defined $64,000–$66,800 range. Between the Fed and the month-end expiry there are plenty of catalysts to push it out of the range; how to read its 24/7 microstructure is covered in bitcoin order flow.
In short: a week of scheduled events, not quiet trend. Mark your levels beforehand, let the event bring price to them, and let the flow tell you whether anyone is defending the other side.